Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Changes in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

The Yellow River Basin is an important economic belt and key ecological reservation area in China. In the context of global warming, it great significance to project drought disaster risk for ensuring water security improving resources management measures practice. Based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under three scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) released Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study analyzed characteristics meteorological combination with SPEI indicators over 2015–2100. result indicated that: (1) GCMs from CMIP6 after bias correction performed better reproducing spatial temporal variation precipitation. precipitation may exhibit increase trends 2015 2100, especially SSP585 scenario. (2) varied different scenarios. Under SSP126 scenario, will gradually intensify 2040 2099, while intensity SSP245 likely be higher than SSP126. (3) heterogeneous uncertain periods. tendency Loess Plateau significantly future, frequency duration main conservation areas was projected increase.